Resolves 1 Jan 2027 · 73 days

MSTR if Bitcoin reaches $95,000 in 2026

Resolves 1 Jan 2027 · 73 days

37%Chance from Polymarket ↗63%

Amount

Otherwise—

If it happensNothing

NO1.54×

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Paid out by a verified contract

Shares contract ↗ (opens in a new tab) · Exchange ↗ (opens in a new tab)

Paid out before: Bitcoin reaches $88,000 between Sep 28 and Oct 4, 2026 resolved NO; our test wallet redeemed its NO shares on chain. Payout transaction ↗ (opens in a new tab)

Min $0.01 · Pays in MSTR (tokenized, on Base) · Fund with USDC or MSTR

Fills now or not at all; the signature expires in 10 minutes. MSTR here is wtMSTR on Base; dollars at $136.69 today.

Signal: none yet — prices match Polymarket

The prices match Polymarket’s odds ↗ (36.5%), so they imply today’s price either way. A gap shows once someone disagrees.

The signal over time

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Details

How it’s derived

A YES share pays one MSTR if it happens and nothing otherwise, so its price is roughly the chance it happens times what MSTR would be worth then. Divide out the chance and what is left is the market’s value of MSTR given that it happens. The same for NO, with the chance it doesn’t.

If it happens: YES 0.365 (mid) ÷ P 0.365 = 1.00× spot ≈ $137
Otherwise: NO 0.635 ÷ (1 − P) 0.635 = 1.00× spot ≈ $137

How far to trust it

Chance (P): 36.5% from Polymarket, as of just now. It is a reference: not traded here, settles nothing here. Their book: bid 36.0%, ask 37.0% (1.0 points wide).
Leg prices: The midpoint of this book: YES 0.365 MSTR (bid 0.354, ask 0.375, 2.0 points wide); NO is the rest of one share.
Spot: $137 from the token’s on-chain pool price times Chainlink’s BTC/USD. It only turns the multiples into dollars.
Updated: Just now; refreshed every 20 seconds.
Sensitivity: One point of P moves the “if it happens” value by about 3%.

Order book

Price (MSTR)Shares

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Recent trades

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Rules

Settled on UMA ↗

Will Bitcoin reach $95,000 by December 31, 2026?

Full rules and settlement

This market will resolve to "Yes" if any Binance 1 minute candle for Bitcoin (BTC/USDT) between the creation of this market through 11:59 PM ET on the last day of the year specified in the title has a final "High" price equal to or greater than the price specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No”. Price action before this market's creation will not be considered. The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the BTC/USDT "High" prices available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT, with the chart settings on "1m" for one-minute candles selected on the top bar. Please note that the outcome of this market depends solely on the price data from the Binance BTC/USDT trading pair. Prices from other exchanges, different trading pairs, or spot markets will not be considered for the resolution of this market.

How it settles

1
Deadline · 1 Jan 2027
The words above are frozen on chain.
2
Anyone proposes the answer
With a 500 USDC bond on UMA.
3
24h to dispute
Undisputed, it settles; a second dispute goes to a UMA vote.
4
Redeem
The winning leg redeems for one MSTR.

Contracts and settlement

This question mirrors the Polymarket market "Will Bitcoin reach $95,000 by December 31, 2026?" (https://polymarket.com/event/what-price-will-bitcoin-hit-before-2027, Polygon conditionId 0xacec7e5b90ccb1ac4c950e3aff18156d6ce1bb7b0c87c001a281279412dca784). Its rules are copied verbatim below as published on 2026-09-30; wherever they say "this market", they mean that Polymarket market.

Nobody can edit the frozen words, including Polymarket. The proposer posts a 500 USDC bond plus UMA’s 250 USDC final fee, both returned if their answer stands, on UMA, the oracle Polymarket also uses, through the same adapter contract Polymarket uses, unmodified. A first dispute re-opens the question; a second goes to UMA’s token-holder vote, and whoever was wrong loses their bond: if you hold a leg a wrong answer would hurt, the dispute window is yours.

Emergency override: the adapter’s admin can flag a question and resolve it manually one hour later, with any payout, over whatever UMA said. That power exists in Polymarket’s adapter as deployed (0x006B05…19e665 (opens in a new tab)).

Polymarket’s own result has no effect here. The two are expected to agree because the wording is the same.

Oracle: 0x006B05…19e665 (opens in a new tab)
Question id: 0xec978859e06eb1e1b32662b98caea567eae922a6422c34fdb38b32b50c055c47
Condition: 0xf7f458f1f5c96e6dc6e77efe1265f1d0570deab9e25b91fb28be7f47a73706bb
Exchange: 0xAAf98C…dd2e78 (opens in a new tab)
Collateral: wtMSTR (opens in a new tab)

Settles through Polymarket's UMA adapter (unmodified) on UMA's Optimistic Oracle. The question text is frozen on chain and copies Polymarket's rules word for word. After the deadline anyone can propose the answer with a 500 USDC bond plus UMA's 250 USDC final fee (both returned if the answer stands); undisputed for 24h it settles, disputed it goes to UMA's token-holder vote. Polymarket's own result has no effect here. The adapter's admin can flag an unresolved question and resolve it manually one hour later — an emergency override over UMA's answer, disclosed because it exists.
The Polymarket probability shown is for reference only. It is not traded here and does not settle anything here.
wtMSTR is an upgradeable token controlled by its issuer. Every position here depends on it.
Dividends accrue into wtMSTR as backing and flow to whichever leg wins. These legs decompose total return, not price.
A contingent claim on a security is a derivative on a security. This is a proof of concept.